Monday, September 8, 2008

Come On People

I know it's still pretty early and there's a lot of time left before November, but the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll worries me a little bit. The poll shows McCain up by 4% among registered voters and 10% among likely voters.

Now, I get that the convention just happened and there's the bounce and all that, which is kind of what worries me. I watched the Republican Convention and was repulsed by what I saw. More of the same failed policies, mean-spirited partisanship, and the nomination for VP of someone who still isn't quite ready to have sat down for a real interview. And that was enough to create an 11 point swing among registered voters? Come on people!

Fortunately, it is just the convention bounce and we're still about two months (which equals about 8000 newscycles these days) before any actual voting takes place. Also, in the state by state match up, Obama still seems to be doing well. So we'll see what the next few months have in store for us.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Perhaps others did not see the same thing you thought you saw? I mean, if the results you expected don't match the results that happened (as measured by polling), is statistical reality wrong?

This post contains some questionable assertions. McCain has annoyed many people on the right with his willingness to "go across the aisle." See McCain-Feingold or the "Gang of 14" compromise on judicial appointments. These don't exactly demonstrate "mean-spirited partisanship," and they even annoyed many conservatives. What are Obama's bipartisan accomplishments?

Whether McCain's policies are "failed" is debatable, and it'd be a fine debate. But to take that as truth would be begging the question.

As for the VP nomination, McCain walked Obama's talk with his choice. He brought in a Washington outsider with a history of ethics reform, while Obama called on a veteran Senator with a lobbyist son. However, the disdainful attitude toward Governor Palin exhibited here seems common among the liberal blogs. The 11-point swing might indicate that Americans overall don't agree, though.

As you say, there is a lot of time before the election, and the candidates have been in a statistical tie most of the way. There's no indication that will change. It will be interesting up until election day.