Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Another Tuesday

Well, it's Tuesday again and it's time for the latest round of everybody's favorite game show: Is it Finally Over? Because at this point it's just getting silly.

Whereas the last few rounds of IIFO have been almost painfully formulaic, we're actually going to see something a little different this time around. Namely we'll get to see if Obama's support holds out as well against late surges as Clinton's does.

The trend in recent primaries has been for Clinton to start way ahead, Obama to make a late surge, Clinton to shore up support and win. That's probably what's going to happen in Indiana where any momentum Obama had for the state seems to have hit a brick wall in the form of Jeremiah Wright.

It's North Carolina that bears watching. Obama was ahead in NC by as many as 17 points about a month ago. Now, Real Clear Politics averages have him up by about 8. That's almost a Clinton-esque slide in the polls. The question now is whether or not he will likewise emulate Clinton's election day rebound and score a double digit win.

I really am writing (Wrighting?) off Indiana for Obama. I've seen the same thing happen too many times to have any faith that he'll pull off an upset there. Maybe I'm wrong, but I wdoubt it.

It's North Carolina that has my full attention. If it's close there or if Clinton (somehow) pulls out an actual win then we're looking at a very different race than the one we grew accustomed to over the last two months or so. If Clinton wins North Carolina, I would expect to see a huge super delegate swing in her direction. That really would be the game changer she talks about. Obama hasn't had a must-win state (as opposed to an it-would-be-really-nice-if-he-won state) since Iowa. We'll see if the folks in North Carolina stick with him and keep the game the same as it has been. Because either way, I don't think IIFO will be finishing anytime too soon.

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